2009 Fantasy Baseball Guide

March 2nd, 2009 kNuke

I’ve been playing Fantasy Baseball for about 11 years and during that time I’ve come up with a pretty successful winning strategy. The strategy is simple to follow, but requires a decent level of Fantasy Baseball knowledge.  If you’re a Fantasy Baseball newbie, this Strategy Guide isn’t for you.  This is intended for the real Fantasy Baseball fans.

The Strategy Guide also includes draft notes and insights for the 2009 season.

SALES PERIOD HAS ENDED

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More Hot Stove Movement

January 16th, 2009 kNuke

Derek Lowe signed a 4-year, $60 million deal with the Atlanta Braves. Here’s another case of a team signing an aging pitcher to a lengthy deal. The Braves are paying for about 2-3 years worth of performance. From a fantasy perspective, you can expect Lowe’s regular numbers next season: 10-15 Wins, sub 4.00 ERA, and a decent amount of Ks.

Andruw Jones was cut from the LA Dodgers. I’m surprised how steep his decline was, but he’s only 31. If he lands on a team willing to work with him, he could be a guy to watch as a bounceback candidate.

Kenshin Kawakami is a 33-year old Japanese pitcher who signed a 3-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. He’s no Daisuke, but he could help your fantasy team early in the season and then be used as trade bait around the All-Star break.

Mark Teixeira signed a 8-year, $180 million deal with the NY Yankees. The Yankees overpaid, but Teixeira is a stud. He’s probably the #2 1B behind Albert Pujols.

Rafael Furcal resigned with the LA Dodgers at 3-years, $30 million. If his legs stay healthy, it’s a good deal for both parties. He could be a top-5 SS, but I wouldn’t reach for him.

The Chicago Cubs resigned Ryan Dempster to a 4-year, $52 million deal and signed Milton Bradley to a 3-year, $30 million deal.  I don’t like either deal; Dempster is a mediocre pitcher and Bradley is too injury prone.  Let other fantasy owners draft these two guys.

Pat Burrell signed a 2-year, $16 million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.  I love this deal.  The Rays needed power and that’s what Burrell brings.  I think a move to the AL will help Burrell as he won’t have to run around in the outfield anymore.  I’d draft Burrell in the later rounds and track his progress.  He may need time to adjust to the DH role, but he’ll end the year with 30+ HR.

Daniel Cabrera signed a 1-year deal with the Washington Nationals.  This guy has K stuff.  Add the fact he’s playing in a pitcher’s park and you got a big time sleeper candidate.  Just be ready to cut the cord if he starts throwing balls.

Brian Fuentes signed a 2-year, $17.5 million deal with the Anaheim Angels.  This is a decent deal, because of the length.  I’ve never liked Fuentes, but if he’s on the Angels his stock rises to an easy 40+ saves.  I’d still let someone else draft him unless he falls to me as a value pick.

Trevor Hoffman signed a 1-year, $6 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Great deal for both sides.  Fantasy wise, I’d normally draft Hoffman over Fuentes any day, but with the team switch, I’m not too sure.  Hoffman is a borderline #2 closer on my fantasy board right now.

Randy Johnson signed a 1-year, $8 million deal with the SF Giants.  I’m okay with this deal, because it’s only one year for the fossil.  I’m actually hoping the Big Unit will be available with my last pick on draft day.  I know he’s old, but I think he has enough juice to help out a fantasy team for the first half of the season.

The Boston Red Sox signed John Smoltz to a 1-year, $5.5 million deal and Brad Penny to a 1-year, $5 million deal.  I like both signings as low risk, high value pickups.  Fantasy wise, you have to track both players during Spring Training to determine their health status before determining draft value.

Carl Pavano signed a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.  This is another low risk, high reward signing.  I never really liked Pavano that much, but if he’s someone to watch during Spring Training.

Juan Rivera resigned with the Anaheim Angels at 3-years, $12.75 million.  Great deal for the Angels.  If Rivera can stay healthy and gets around 500 ABs, he’ll hit around .300 with 25+ HRs.  That sounds like nice production from my 3rd OF or Flex guy.

Whew, that was a long post.  I’ll post more frequently as news breaks so keep posted!

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Kerry Wood signs with the Indians

December 13th, 2008 kNuke

Kerry Wood signed a 2 year, $20.5 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.  I like the signing; it’s short-term and fills a huge need.  I’m expecting Wood to save 40+ games next season.

Fantasy wise he’s a second-tier closer with upside potential.

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MLB Winter Meetings Moves

December 12th, 2008 kNuke

I’m going to do a quick rundown of the latest MLB moves until after the Winter Meetings.  I’m going to take a general perspective and a fantasy perspective.

CC Sabathia: Yankees, 7 yrs – $161 million

General: CC is a good pitcher, but this deal is waaay too long.  The Yankees will be paying CC dead money for the last 2-4 years of the deal.  I don’t understand why teams get locked into such long term deals?  CC smells too much like Bartolo Colon.

Fantasy: He’s a first line starter no doubt, probably top 3.  Normally I would say going to the Yankees adds wins, but I’m not sold on the Yankees hitting right now.  That being said, they are the Yankees and they seem to be unaffected by the economy (see below).

AJ Burnett: Yankees, 5 yrs – $82.5 million

General: This is ridiculous!  Can you say Carl Pavano?  That’s a tad bit over the top; Burnett has dominant strikeout stuff, but that’s a lot of money for a #3 starter.  Granted he actually takes the mound.

Fantasy: He is the classic risk-reward guy.  Lots of Ks, decent ERA, and now Wins.  I’d keep an eye on Burnett in your upcoming draft, just don’t reach for him.

Raul Ibanez: Phillies, 3 yrs – $30 million

General: This guy is old and left-handed like everyone else on the Phillies roster, why not just resign Burrell?

Fantasy: I was never big on Ibanez, but he produces.  That being said, I’m downgrading the guy because he’s old and I see that very steep coming up.

Francisco Rodriguez: Mets, 3 yrs – $37 million

General: Not a bad deal.  The only thing I worry about is K-Rod getting injured.  I would bet the house that he’ll miss an entire year at some point in the next 3 years.

Fantasy: K-Rod won’t get 62 saves again this season, but pencil in 40-45 and he won’t disappoint.  His K numbers are dropping so maybe we’ll have to name him .5K-Rod?

JJ Putz: Mets, Trade

General: What are the Mariners thinking?  Putz was one of their best players…  Didn’t seem like they got a lot out of the deal.

Fantasy: Putz went from top line closer to K-Rod handcuff in the span of one year.

Edgar Renteria: Giants, 2 yrs – $18.5 million

General: This is why the Giants suck.

Fantasy: Renteria’s name recognition is high, but he’s not that useful; let someone else take the guy.

Matt Holliday: Athletics, Trade

General: Normally the A’s are pretty easy to predict, but this move doesn’t make any sense.  Trade away a young guy to get an established guy when you’re not close to contending…  I don’t get it.

Fantasy:  Holliday takes a huge hit by moving out of Coors.  I’d say this drops him to  Rounds 2-4.

Others, Fantasy

Mike Jacobs, Royals: The Royals have a bunch of guys at 1B now so that’s a little scary.  But if Jacobs plays a full season, he’ll hit 35 HRs with 100 RBI.  That’s a lot of production from a mid-round guy.

Khalil Greene, Cardinals: He is out of Petco; draft him as a backup, he’ll hit close to 30 HRs.

Javier Vasquez, Braves: He’s a decent late round pickup.  Decent amount of Ks.  He’s a spot starter against good matchups.  The switch in leagues may help, but that’s probably offset by a poor Braves offense.

Gerald Laird, Tigers: Anytime a catcher changes teams, it’s a big deal so take notice.  Laird isn’t that good, but if he plays regularly, he’ll produce decent catcher numbers.

Ryan Freel, Orioles: If he plays regularly he could be a very useful utility player for you in the SB category.

Ramon Hernandez, Reds: Another catcher changing teams.  I’d say he ranks a slot lower than Laird only because Hernandez is in the NL.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg isn’t a closer anymore so he has no value.  If you don’t feel Carlos Marmol can do the job, Gregg is a possible handcuff, but don’t hold your breath.

Felipe Lopez, Diamondbacks: The guy was a bum for the Nationals, but I’m thinking he’ll post at least 20 SBs.  Keep that in mind late in the draft.

Casey Blake, Dodgers: Blake resigned, do you really care?  Well maybe you should if you’re looking for a filler at 3B, the guy’s decent.

Mariners Closer: Brandon Morrow or Aaron Heilman look to fill the closer role after JJ Putz was traded.

Hopefully these notes can be of some use to you come draft day…  I’ll keep posting as news trickles in so stay tuned!

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Late Season Pickups

September 12th, 2008 kNuke

I haven’t had a Fantasy Baseball post in a few months.  ACL rehab has taken up a lot of my time, but don’t think I’ve stopped updating my Fantasy Baseball roster.

If you’re still paying attention to Fantasy Baseball at this point in the year, you’re probably in contention for the title.  At this point, you should be taking long looks at your Standings, focusing on important categories that you have to protect or go after.

Here’s my late season adds and the categories they impact.  Note that all hitter pickups should help in the R category.

• Elijah Dukes: HR, RBI, SB
• Lastings Milledge: HR, SB
• Andre Ethier: AVG, RBI
• Mike Jacobs: HR
• Shin-Soo Choo: AVG, RBI
• Rajai Davis: SB
• Jerry Hairston Jr: SB, AVG
• Jay Bruce: HR
• Joey Votto: HR
• Taylor Teagarden: HR
• Chris Snyder: HR
• Brandon Morrow: W, K
• Max Scherzer: K
• Chris Young: W, ERA, WHIP
• Joe Nelson: SV
• Luis Ayala: W, SV
• George Sherill: SV

Hope these pickups will help you win a category or two and your league.

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