Kevin Gregg, Chicago Cubs Closer

March 29th, 2009 kNuke

Kevin Gregg is now the closer for the Chicago Cubs.  Gregg’s value skyrockets as he could notch 40 Saves on a long leash.  If the leash is short, I still expect him to record 20 Saves minimum.

Sorry to all you Carlos Marmol Owners out there.  But don’t panic and drop Marmol, he can still help you out and I think he’ll eventually take over the closer role as Gregg has proven to be erratic in the past.

FYI: If you have Marmol, you may want to make a speculative move and pickup Seth McClung.  McClung could grab a few saves while Trevor Hoffman is on the DL.

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Fantasy Baseball Targets

March 23rd, 2009 kNuke

Below are the guys I’m targeting in my 12-Team Fantasy Draft.  The list includes Sleepers, Value Picks, and High Risk/Reward Guys.

Carl Crawford: Round 3
Crawford is prime for a bounce back year now that he’s healthy and not carrying the franchise on his back.
Prediction: .300 AVG, 110 R, 20 HR, and 50 SB

Brian Roberts: Round 4
Roberts is going to have another solid season.
Prediction: .300 AVG, 110 R, 15 HR, and 45 SB

Bob Abreu: Round 5 (Value Pick)
Abreu may be the most underrated Fantasy player in the past few years behind Melvin Mora. He’ll contribute in all categories.
Prediction: .300 AVG, 105 R, 105 RBI, 20 HR, and 15 SB

Chone Figgins: Round 8
I was torn between the speed of Figgins versus the production of Atkins in this Round. I chose Figgins, because I think Atkins will be traded at mid season, which drops his value for the year big time.
Prediction: .300 AVG, 110 R, and 50 SB

Erik Bedard: Round 12 (High Risk/Reward)
Bedard has the stuff to be a big time strikeout pitcher, but will he have the innings?
Prediction: 10 W, 180 IP, 170 K, 3.70 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP

Pablo Sandoval: Round 12 (Sleeper)
Sandoval should be an everyday player at 3B, but he has Catcher eligibility.  By simply playing everyday, he’ll be in the Top 3 at the Catcher spot.  One note, everyone seems to be on to this guy so if he’s snatched earlier than expected, target Chris Iannetta and his Frost Brewed 25 HR.
Prediction: .300 AVG and everything else is a Bonus

Lastings Milledge: Round 12
Milledge is going to start the season batting leadoff for the Nationals, but I doubt he’ll stay there all year. That means SB early in the season, RBI later.
Prediction: .280 AVG, 90 R, 75 RBI, 20 HR, and 30 SB

Willy Taveras: Round 16 (Value Pick)
If you are weak at SB at this point in your draft, Taveras will get you some SBs.
Prediction: .280 AVG, 100 R, and 50 SB

Mike Gonzalez, Joel Hanrahan, Frank Francisco, and Brandon Lyon: Round 17-19
All of these guys should be on your Saves Radar.
Prediction: 35 SV

Travis Hafner: Round 17-19 (High Risk/Reward)
If Pronk can stay healthy, he’ll produce decent numbers, but he does tie up that Utility spot.
Prediction: .290 AVG, 90 R, 100 RBI, and 30 HR

Chris Carpenter: Round 20 (Sleeper)
All reports indicate that Carpenter is good to go, but injury is always a concern.
Prediction: 12 W, 170 IP, 120 K, 3.50 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP

Adam LaRoche: Round 20-21
If you need HR help, LaRoche is a great pick to round out your draft.
Prediction: .275 AVG, 80 RBI, and 25 HR

Hope my list may help you out a bit. Good Luck this season!

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Injury Downgrades

March 17th, 2009 kNuke

This may be a little late, but it’s still relevant if your draft is upcoming.

Matt Lindstrom
Lindstrom is out about two weeks with a strained rotator cuff. He is a fireballer, so I’d watch this situation closely. If healthy, he should be able to rack up about 30 saves. That’s great value from a late round selection, which is why I still think he’s worth drafting. Leo Nunez will get Saves in Lindstrom’s absence.

Manny Ramirez
Manny is out about a week with a tight hamstring. I wouldn’t worry about the injury too much as long as you expect Manny to play only about 140 games.

Chipper Jones
Chipper is out with a right oblique muscle strain. I’d stay away from Chipper as much as possible; Oblique strains are death to hitters.

Alex Rodriguez
Arod is out for about a month after hip surgery. I see alot of others suggesting he’s a “Bargain” in the 2nd round, but I wouldn’t touch the guy until the 5th round.

Cole Hamels
Hamels has a stiff elbow and may miss the Season Opener. I don’t see any indications of why he would be injured, but I’ll still drop him a couple rounds.

Johan Santana
Santana threw the other day without any elbow issues, but his fastball hovered below 90 mph. He is starting his decline ala Pedro Martinez. He’s still a #1 Fantasy SP, but I wouldn’t be surprised if his numbers start tailing off.

There are a lot of injuries occurring during this time of the year. Pay attention to lingering or past-related injuries, but don’t worry about the normal bumps and bruises.

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2009 Fantasy Baseball Guide

March 2nd, 2009 kNuke

I’ve been playing Fantasy Baseball for about 11 years and during that time I’ve come up with a pretty successful winning strategy. The strategy is simple to follow, but requires a decent level of Fantasy Baseball knowledge.  If you’re a Fantasy Baseball newbie, this Strategy Guide isn’t for you.  This is intended for the real Fantasy Baseball fans.

The Strategy Guide also includes draft notes and insights for the 2009 season.

SALES PERIOD HAS ENDED

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Arod “Apology”

February 17th, 2009 kNuke

I’m not sure I’m buying the guys’ story.  I understand you don’t want to say something dumb at the podium, but why do you need a written script?  That just makes it seem staged…  Why not just open up the floor to questions and let the media have at it?  If you’re going to tell the truth, why not just tell the entire truth?

I think it’s honorable to leave the names out, but how can you forget what you took and not know the effects?  Anytime you inject yourself with something, I would imagine you’d at least take the time to understand the benefits and drawbacks.  2003 was a long time ago, I personally can’t remember last week, but I definitely remember supplements I’ve taken for 3 years straight.

Of all the players I thought were steroid free, Arod was up there on my list, probably in the second tier group behind guys like Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr, and Greg Maddux.  I really wanted to believe after all the scrunity he’s endured, he’d emerge in a few years as the shining star of the game, and a legend not fully appreciated in his time…  Oops, I missed that one.  My appreciation of his talents spilt over to Fantasy Baseball as well where I’d take him as my top choice if available , but this year I’m going to have to steer clear until Round 2.

Thumbs Up/Down on Arod’s “apology?”

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More Hot Stove Movement

January 16th, 2009 kNuke

Derek Lowe signed a 4-year, $60 million deal with the Atlanta Braves. Here’s another case of a team signing an aging pitcher to a lengthy deal. The Braves are paying for about 2-3 years worth of performance. From a fantasy perspective, you can expect Lowe’s regular numbers next season: 10-15 Wins, sub 4.00 ERA, and a decent amount of Ks.

Andruw Jones was cut from the LA Dodgers. I’m surprised how steep his decline was, but he’s only 31. If he lands on a team willing to work with him, he could be a guy to watch as a bounceback candidate.

Kenshin Kawakami is a 33-year old Japanese pitcher who signed a 3-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. He’s no Daisuke, but he could help your fantasy team early in the season and then be used as trade bait around the All-Star break.

Mark Teixeira signed a 8-year, $180 million deal with the NY Yankees. The Yankees overpaid, but Teixeira is a stud. He’s probably the #2 1B behind Albert Pujols.

Rafael Furcal resigned with the LA Dodgers at 3-years, $30 million. If his legs stay healthy, it’s a good deal for both parties. He could be a top-5 SS, but I wouldn’t reach for him.

The Chicago Cubs resigned Ryan Dempster to a 4-year, $52 million deal and signed Milton Bradley to a 3-year, $30 million deal.  I don’t like either deal; Dempster is a mediocre pitcher and Bradley is too injury prone.  Let other fantasy owners draft these two guys.

Pat Burrell signed a 2-year, $16 million deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.  I love this deal.  The Rays needed power and that’s what Burrell brings.  I think a move to the AL will help Burrell as he won’t have to run around in the outfield anymore.  I’d draft Burrell in the later rounds and track his progress.  He may need time to adjust to the DH role, but he’ll end the year with 30+ HR.

Daniel Cabrera signed a 1-year deal with the Washington Nationals.  This guy has K stuff.  Add the fact he’s playing in a pitcher’s park and you got a big time sleeper candidate.  Just be ready to cut the cord if he starts throwing balls.

Brian Fuentes signed a 2-year, $17.5 million deal with the Anaheim Angels.  This is a decent deal, because of the length.  I’ve never liked Fuentes, but if he’s on the Angels his stock rises to an easy 40+ saves.  I’d still let someone else draft him unless he falls to me as a value pick.

Trevor Hoffman signed a 1-year, $6 million deal with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Great deal for both sides.  Fantasy wise, I’d normally draft Hoffman over Fuentes any day, but with the team switch, I’m not too sure.  Hoffman is a borderline #2 closer on my fantasy board right now.

Randy Johnson signed a 1-year, $8 million deal with the SF Giants.  I’m okay with this deal, because it’s only one year for the fossil.  I’m actually hoping the Big Unit will be available with my last pick on draft day.  I know he’s old, but I think he has enough juice to help out a fantasy team for the first half of the season.

The Boston Red Sox signed John Smoltz to a 1-year, $5.5 million deal and Brad Penny to a 1-year, $5 million deal.  I like both signings as low risk, high value pickups.  Fantasy wise, you have to track both players during Spring Training to determine their health status before determining draft value.

Carl Pavano signed a 1-year, $1.5 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.  This is another low risk, high reward signing.  I never really liked Pavano that much, but if he’s someone to watch during Spring Training.

Juan Rivera resigned with the Anaheim Angels at 3-years, $12.75 million.  Great deal for the Angels.  If Rivera can stay healthy and gets around 500 ABs, he’ll hit around .300 with 25+ HRs.  That sounds like nice production from my 3rd OF or Flex guy.

Whew, that was a long post.  I’ll post more frequently as news breaks so keep posted!

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Kerry Wood signs with the Indians

December 13th, 2008 kNuke

Kerry Wood signed a 2 year, $20.5 million deal with the Cleveland Indians.  I like the signing; it’s short-term and fills a huge need.  I’m expecting Wood to save 40+ games next season.

Fantasy wise he’s a second-tier closer with upside potential.

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MLB Winter Meetings Moves

December 12th, 2008 kNuke

I’m going to do a quick rundown of the latest MLB moves until after the Winter Meetings.  I’m going to take a general perspective and a fantasy perspective.

CC Sabathia: Yankees, 7 yrs – $161 million

General: CC is a good pitcher, but this deal is waaay too long.  The Yankees will be paying CC dead money for the last 2-4 years of the deal.  I don’t understand why teams get locked into such long term deals?  CC smells too much like Bartolo Colon.

Fantasy: He’s a first line starter no doubt, probably top 3.  Normally I would say going to the Yankees adds wins, but I’m not sold on the Yankees hitting right now.  That being said, they are the Yankees and they seem to be unaffected by the economy (see below).

AJ Burnett: Yankees, 5 yrs – $82.5 million

General: This is ridiculous!  Can you say Carl Pavano?  That’s a tad bit over the top; Burnett has dominant strikeout stuff, but that’s a lot of money for a #3 starter.  Granted he actually takes the mound.

Fantasy: He is the classic risk-reward guy.  Lots of Ks, decent ERA, and now Wins.  I’d keep an eye on Burnett in your upcoming draft, just don’t reach for him.

Raul Ibanez: Phillies, 3 yrs – $30 million

General: This guy is old and left-handed like everyone else on the Phillies roster, why not just resign Burrell?

Fantasy: I was never big on Ibanez, but he produces.  That being said, I’m downgrading the guy because he’s old and I see that very steep coming up.

Francisco Rodriguez: Mets, 3 yrs – $37 million

General: Not a bad deal.  The only thing I worry about is K-Rod getting injured.  I would bet the house that he’ll miss an entire year at some point in the next 3 years.

Fantasy: K-Rod won’t get 62 saves again this season, but pencil in 40-45 and he won’t disappoint.  His K numbers are dropping so maybe we’ll have to name him .5K-Rod?

JJ Putz: Mets, Trade

General: What are the Mariners thinking?  Putz was one of their best players…  Didn’t seem like they got a lot out of the deal.

Fantasy: Putz went from top line closer to K-Rod handcuff in the span of one year.

Edgar Renteria: Giants, 2 yrs – $18.5 million

General: This is why the Giants suck.

Fantasy: Renteria’s name recognition is high, but he’s not that useful; let someone else take the guy.

Matt Holliday: Athletics, Trade

General: Normally the A’s are pretty easy to predict, but this move doesn’t make any sense.  Trade away a young guy to get an established guy when you’re not close to contending…  I don’t get it.

Fantasy:  Holliday takes a huge hit by moving out of Coors.  I’d say this drops him to  Rounds 2-4.

Others, Fantasy

Mike Jacobs, Royals: The Royals have a bunch of guys at 1B now so that’s a little scary.  But if Jacobs plays a full season, he’ll hit 35 HRs with 100 RBI.  That’s a lot of production from a mid-round guy.

Khalil Greene, Cardinals: He is out of Petco; draft him as a backup, he’ll hit close to 30 HRs.

Javier Vasquez, Braves: He’s a decent late round pickup.  Decent amount of Ks.  He’s a spot starter against good matchups.  The switch in leagues may help, but that’s probably offset by a poor Braves offense.

Gerald Laird, Tigers: Anytime a catcher changes teams, it’s a big deal so take notice.  Laird isn’t that good, but if he plays regularly, he’ll produce decent catcher numbers.

Ryan Freel, Orioles: If he plays regularly he could be a very useful utility player for you in the SB category.

Ramon Hernandez, Reds: Another catcher changing teams.  I’d say he ranks a slot lower than Laird only because Hernandez is in the NL.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs: Gregg isn’t a closer anymore so he has no value.  If you don’t feel Carlos Marmol can do the job, Gregg is a possible handcuff, but don’t hold your breath.

Felipe Lopez, Diamondbacks: The guy was a bum for the Nationals, but I’m thinking he’ll post at least 20 SBs.  Keep that in mind late in the draft.

Casey Blake, Dodgers: Blake resigned, do you really care?  Well maybe you should if you’re looking for a filler at 3B, the guy’s decent.

Mariners Closer: Brandon Morrow or Aaron Heilman look to fill the closer role after JJ Putz was traded.

Hopefully these notes can be of some use to you come draft day…  I’ll keep posting as news trickles in so stay tuned!

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Late Season Pickups

September 12th, 2008 kNuke

I haven’t had a Fantasy Baseball post in a few months.  ACL rehab has taken up a lot of my time, but don’t think I’ve stopped updating my Fantasy Baseball roster.

If you’re still paying attention to Fantasy Baseball at this point in the year, you’re probably in contention for the title.  At this point, you should be taking long looks at your Standings, focusing on important categories that you have to protect or go after.

Here’s my late season adds and the categories they impact.  Note that all hitter pickups should help in the R category.

• Elijah Dukes: HR, RBI, SB
• Lastings Milledge: HR, SB
• Andre Ethier: AVG, RBI
• Mike Jacobs: HR
• Shin-Soo Choo: AVG, RBI
• Rajai Davis: SB
• Jerry Hairston Jr: SB, AVG
• Jay Bruce: HR
• Joey Votto: HR
• Taylor Teagarden: HR
• Chris Snyder: HR
• Brandon Morrow: W, K
• Max Scherzer: K
• Chris Young: W, ERA, WHIP
• Joe Nelson: SV
• Luis Ayala: W, SV
• George Sherill: SV

Hope these pickups will help you win a category or two and your league.

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Injury Alert: Chien-Ming Wang

June 16th, 2008 kNuke

Chien-Ming Wang has an injury to his right foot and will be out for at least six weeks. 

The trade market should be heating up pretty soon and a great replacement would be Justin Verlander. 

If you’re looking on the waiver wire, look to see if Armando Galarraga, Randy Wolf, John Danks, or Jair Jurrjens is available.

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